Strategic Rivalries in World Politics: Position, Space and Conflict Escalation
International conflict is neither random nor inexplicable. It is highly structured by antagonisms between a relatively small set of states that regard each other as rivals. Examining the 173 strategic rivalries in operation throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, this book identifies the differences rivalries make in the probability of conflict escalation and analyzes how they interact with serial crises, arms races, alliances and capability advantages. The authors distinguish between rivalries concerning territorial disagreement (space) and rivalries concerning status and influence (position) and show how each leads to markedly different patterns of conflict escalation. They argue that rivals are more likely to engage in international conflict with their antagonists than non-rival pairs of states and conclude with an assessment of whether we can expect democratic peace, economic development and economic interdependence to constrain rivalry-induced conflict.
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90 percent conﬁdence adversaries approach arms races autocracies Chapter coefﬁcients conﬂict escalation contested territory contiguity Correlates of War crisis behavior data set decision-makers deﬁned deﬁnition democracy difﬁcult dispute-density dyadic effect empirical enduring rivalries examine expected external alliances ﬁght ﬁnd ﬁndings ﬁrst ﬁve Hazard ratio hostility hypotheses identiﬁcations inﬂuence interaction interstate rivalry involved joiner Multilateral Korean less major power status major power subsystem militarized disputes militarized interstate disputes military build-ups noncontiguous nonrivalry nonrivals number of actors onset outcome percent conﬁdence interval political positional issues positional rivalries power dyads previous crises prob probability of escalation probit model problem propensities protracted conﬂict question regime type regional rivalries rivalries rivalry context rivalry identiﬁcations rivalry initiation rivalry relationships RIVALRY TYPE rivals sequence serial crisis signiﬁcant signiﬁcantly spatial and positional spatial rivalries speciﬁc statistically signiﬁcant strategic rivalries Table territorial disputes threat types of rivalries variables Vasquez violence wars