such as would either be free from, or not liable to, particular average. And when we add to this estimate the greatly increased value of the homeward cargo, and the practical impossibility of regulating lines upon this voyage, and the fact of the average premium on interest free of average having been throughout the four and a half years in question less than one-third of the above rate, we shall see at once at what a ruinous loss to underwriters this business has been carried on. We must also note the loss in 1873 of the "Calcutta" (s.), which does not appear in the above calculation, as at the moment when she was run down in the Hooghly she had on board an inward cargo of rice from Sonapore. In the above estimate also the steamers belonging to Messrs. Green, of Blackwall, and Messrs. G. Smith and Sons, of Glasgow, have not been included, as underwriters have always given them a preference in point of premium. These have made altogether forty-seven successful voyages within the four and a half years. In like manner, of the steamers sailing out to China, one has been lost, the "Don" (s.) in 1870, four have met with serious accidents, and about ten with lesser ones upon a number of voyages amounting in all to 201. Homewards, however, we have no less than five losses and two accidents of an important kind (with five smaller ones) on 174 voyages. While, therefore, a premium of 30s. outward would have paid well, it would have taken nearly £5 per cent. to have left a fair profit homewards, and that without taking at all into consideration the values of silk and tea cargoes. The five losses homeward were the "Parnassus" (s.) in 1872, the "Drummond Castle" (s.), "Singapore" (s.), and "Canton" (s.) in 1873, and the "Gordon Castle" (s.) in 1874. In the above calculation Messrs. Holt's steamers have not been taken into account, as underwriters have from the first given them a preference in point of premium over all others, except those of the Peninsular and Oriental Company, a preference fully justified by the successful issue of no less than 96 voyages within the four and a half years. To and from Manilla the line of Spanish steamers have made 15 voyages out and home within the same time, but of these, one was temporarily sunk at Liverpool through collision in 1872, and a second has still to face an allegation of liability for the loss of the "Wyberton" (s.). If we also class together all voyages to and from the Rice Ports, Java, Ceylon, and the Malabar and Coromandel coasts, we find that, out of a little under 100 voyages outwards, one presents us with a total loss, viz. that of the "Wyberton" (s.) in 1874, and of about 140 voyages home, we have the two losses in 1873' and 1874 of the “Arracan” (s.) and "Tennaserim" (s.). This head, therefore, at the current rates, is as much in the rear as the others. Again, from the Persian Gulf and Kurrachee, we have the losses of the "Ispahan" (s.) and the "Isa" (s.), in 1871 and 1870, coming against a number of voyages materially under 50 either way. Neither does the more fortunate head of Bombay really do much to relieve the dismal picture, as we have the two losses outwards in 1871 and 1873, of the "Breadalbane" (s.) and "Collingwood" (s.), against 240 voyages, and of the "John Dryden" (s.), homewards, in 1870, upon 320 homeward voyages. The lighter cargoes of cotton seem thus a favourable element in comparison with those from some other places. We hope, however, enough has been said to show that while 25s. and 30s. would have been a barely remunerative rate to Bombay and Calcutta, free of average, by the ordinary run of steamers, and 30s. to 35s. to the lower and upper ports of China, all the homeward risks, with the single exception of Bombay, have been perfectly ruinous. In addition to the considerations of value, and of the impossibility of selecting particular steamers, there would seem to be a much greater risk and difficulty in making the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean than in issuing from it, as so many losses have taken place in this neighbourhood. VI.-Autumn Quebec Risks. Having had occasion lately to trace out the results of nearly 7,000 voyages between Quebec and this country, with a view to ascertain the effect of the carriage of deckloads during the fall of the year, a favourable opportunity presented itself for ascertaining the lowest rates of premium that would prove fairly remunerative on this voyage at this season of the year. As is well known to all underwriters, many casualties, as well as abandonments and total losses, are of frequent occurrence in the autumn months. To find out the precise pecuniary result of every shipment in an underwriting point of view would, of course, be impossible; but the whole number, as recorded in "Lloyd's List," have been carefully gone through and estimated by a gentleman who has probably had a larger experience of these risks than any one else, and it is believed that, on an average, the results given below must approximate very closely to the exact truth. Between 1850 and 1859, inclusive, during the month of September, when no deck-loads were allowed to be shipped, there sailed from Quebec to this country 984 vessels, the premiums upon which voyages, on a line of £100 by each one, must have had to bear claims to the amount of £1,470. Thus, making all allowances, an average premium of 40s. would have almost covered an underwriter's loss, or to enable him to make a reasonable profit 50s. would have been necessary. But when we turn to the deck-loading period, between 1863 and 1872, we find that on 1,027 voyages we have to make good £1,940. This would require an average premium of 60s. instead of 50s., which estimate tallies with the rates that have recently been current of 40s. on cargoes by ships sailing by the 1st of September, 60s. by the 15th, and 80s. by the end of September, a rate which it is clear it would on no account be safe to go below, for we must remember that shipowners are now perfectly unfettered as to carrying deck-loads during this month. Dealing with the month of October in like manner, we find that between 1850 and 1859, 1,925 voyages had to bear a loss of £5,700. This points to an average premium in that month of 90s., whereas in the deck-loading years (1863-72) 1,403 voyages have to bear £5,930 of loss. This would give a premium of £6 6s. on October sailings. As is well known, the present Dominion law as to deck-loading enables a shipowner to carry 3 feet of deals on deck after the 1st of October. This is, doubtless, a great element of safety, but still these lighter deckloads are very frequently either .thrown or washed overboard. We may thus, perhaps, estimate the premium at a figure half-way between the two, or, say, £5 10S. This would point to about 80s. or 90s. for the 1st of October, and £7 or £7 7s. for the last week. But it is when we come to the November sailings, and those that occasionally take place during the early days of December, that we are at once struck with the almost hopeless nature of the risk. Even between 1850 and 1859 866 voyages had to bear £5,230 of loss, thus requiring an average premium for that month of nearly £9. And between 1863 and 1872 we find that 634 voyages cost no less than £6,140, an amount of disaster that would have been hardly more than covered by a premium of £12 12s. It would thus be clearly unsafe at the present time to insure these risks under rates almost prohibitory, say from £11 to £12 per cent. Some have imagined that the above figures hardly represent the truth, from the circumstance of small vessels, say those under 400 tons, being much more exposed to accident in the Atlantic than those of a larger size, and that therefore a more than proportionate amount of loss must have fallen upon these. But facts do not warrant such a supposition. A comparison between the results of voyages made by vessels respectively under and over 400 tons, gives us a result actually in favour of the former between 1850 and 1859, and but slightly against them during the deck-loading period between 1863 and 1872, thus affording little or no ground for the selection of larger vessels, unless, perhaps, during the last months of shipment. CC |